Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Quaest Poll

The release of the Quaest poll this Wednesday (2) brought to light a scenario of a technical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, raising interest in the dispute for a potential second round in October.

General Results of the Quaest Poll

According to the poll, Lula has 42% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro registers 41%. The general margin of error is two percentage points, which keeps both candidates in numerical equality.

Performance Across Voter Groups

The survey indicates that the race is particularly tight among independent voters, those in the 35 to 59 age group, and those with a complete higher education.

• Voters aged 35 to 59: 42% for Lula and 41% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
• Independent voters: 32% for Lula and 29% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
• People with complete higher education: 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 40% for Lula.

Regional and Income Variations

In the Central-West and North regions, the margin of error increases to five points, generating a 10-point numerical advantage for Flávio Bolsonaro (48% against 38% for Lula). Among voters earning two to five minimum wages, the poll indicates a tie within the margin of error, with 45% for Flávio and 39% for Lula.

Comparison with Other Polls

While Quaest shows a technical tie, Datafolha is preparing a new poll for September 11, focused on the state of São Paulo, the country's largest electoral college. The Datafolha survey will test Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in first and second-round scenarios, in addition to measuring rejection, degree of vote consolidation, and government approval ratings.

What the Numbers Indicate for the Campaign

The narrow differential between the candidates suggests that the campaign could still undergo significant changes until the election. The closeness in voting intentions, especially in segments such as middle-class voters and those with higher education, points to a dispute that will depend on mobilization strategies and possible shifts in the political landscape in the coming weeks.

With information from G1, VEJA.