Atlas/Bloomberg Poll Indicates Technical Tie Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

A new AtlasIntel poll, in partnership with Bloomberg and released this Wednesday (09/23), showed that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are technically tied in a second-round scenario. The survey also indicates a migration of votes that could lead to the election being decided in the first round.

Technical Tie in the Second Round

In simulated scenarios for a potential second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the poll registered 47.7% for the PT candidate and 47.4% for the senator, a difference of three tenths of a point, within the one percentage point margin of error.

Valid Votes in the First Round

Considering only valid votes, Lula reaches 46.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43.9%, a difference of 2.4 percentage points. Together, the two candidates concentrate 89.2% of voting intentions.

Migration of Voters to the Two Main Candidates

The sum of other candidacies decreased from 12.1% to 9.9% between the two weeks analyzed, indicating that voters who previously declared themselves undecided or supported other names have migrated to Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro.

Performance of Other Candidates

In the first-round scenario, the largest candidacy outside the two leaders is Renan Santos (Missão), with 4.5%, followed by Augusto Cury (Avante) with 2.1%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 1.3%, and Romeu Zema (Novo) with 0.9%.

Poll Methodology

5,015 voters were interviewed between September 17 and 22, using online questionnaires. The margin of error is one percentage point, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The registration code with the Electoral Court is BR-04739/2026.

With information from CartaCapital, Opera Mundi, Gazeta do Povo.