Electoral Poll Shows Tight Race Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

With the presidential election less than a week away, two recent polls present figures that place the dispute between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a narrow margin. The results fuel expectations of a tight runoff and potential technical ties.

First Round Results According to the Indexa/Broadcast Poll

The poll conducted by the Indexa institute in partnership with Broadcast, with 2,000 interviews between September 27 and 29, indicates that Lula leads with 39% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 34%. Other candidates register percentages between 0% and 4%, and 7% of respondents are still undecided.

Runoff: Indexa/Broadcast Scenario

In a runoff scenario between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the same poll shows Lula with 43% and Bolsonaro with 42%, a one-percentage-point difference. Considering the margin of error of 2.2 points, the result is classified as a technical tie.

Runoff According to the Futura/100% Cidades Poll

Another poll, conducted by Futura/100% Cidades between September 25 and 29, presents a different outlook: Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 49% of voting intentions, while Lula registers 43.5% in a potential runoff. The margin of error is also 2.2 points, but the difference exceeds the technical limit, indicating an advantage for the candidate from Minas Gerais.

Comparison of Runoff Scenarios

Both polls also tested other matchups. Indexa/Broadcast included scenarios with Romeu Zema (Novo), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão), and Augusto Cury (Avante), with Lula remaining ahead in all, although in some cases a technical tie was registered. Futura/100% Cidades also presented alternatives, such as Lula against Ronaldo Caiado (45.6% to 42.4%) and Lula against Romeu Zema (45.1% to 42.2%).

What the Numbers Indicate for the Brazilian Electorate

The data points to an still uncertain electoral race. While the Indexa/Broadcast poll suggests a technical tie in the runoff, the Futura/100% Cidades poll indicates an almost six-point advantage for Flávio Bolsonaro. Both analyses share the same margin of error (2.2 points) and number of interviews (2,000), which reinforces the need for close monitoring in the coming days.

With information from CartaCapital, Poder360, InfoMoney.