Flávio Bolsonaro leads in São Paulo, Rio, and DF in new Datafolha poll

A new Datafolha poll, released this Friday, September 25, has brought to light Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL) lead in three of the country's largest electoral colleges: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and the Federal District. The survey also shows Lula (PT) ahead in Pernambuco and a technical tie in Minas Gerais, which explains the intense public interest in the 2026 presidential race.

Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead in São Paulo

In the largest electoral college, Flávio Bolsonaro registered 38% of voting intentions, three points above the previous poll. Lula maintained 33%, with no variation. The five-percentage-point difference between the candidates widened the gap that already existed.

Rio de Janeiro and Federal District Also Favor Flávio

In Rio de Janeiro, the poll showed Flávio with 44% against Lula's 38%. In the Federal District, the margin was 49% to 41% in favor of the PL candidate. Both scenarios reinforce Flávio's advantage in the most populous regions.

Lula Still Leads in Pernambuco

In the poll, Lula appears ahead in Pernambuco, with 39% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro has 34%. The five-point difference keeps the state as one of the few where the PT candidate still leads.

Technical Tie in Minas Gerais

In Minas Gerais, the results point to a technical tie between Lula and Flávio, with the PT candidate slightly ahead numerically. The three-percentage-point margin of error prevents stating a definitive leader.

Second-Round Simulation

In the second-round simulation between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the PL candidate registers 49% of voting intentions, against Lula's 41%. This eight-percentage-point advantage surpasses the five-point difference observed in the previous round.

Methodology and Margin of Error

Datafolha interviewed 1,610 voters aged 16 or older between September 22 and 24, with a two-percentage-point margin of error and a 95% confidence level. The results were registered under number BR-09355/2026 at the Superior Electoral Court.

With information from G1, VEJA.