Centrão Shifts Stance and Adopts Flávio Bolsonaro as Front-Runner

In recent weeks, Centrão leaders have begun pointing to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the new presidential front-runner after the crisis in the Federal Supreme Court (STF) intensified the association between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Recalibration of the Centrão’s bets

According to a report by Metrópoles, leaders of parties such as PP, União Brasil, and Republicanos assessed that Moraes’s image is closely tied to Lula’s, which could hurt the president at the ballot box. This assessment led the bloc to shift its stance, now considering Flávio Bolsonaro the candidate with the greatest chance of victory.

Flávio gains in the polls

The PoderData/Aya survey, released on September 10, 2026, showed Flávio with 47% of voting intentions in the runoff against Lula's 45%, within the 1.8 percentage point margin of error. In the same poll, the senator also appeared ahead of Lula in a simulated runoff against writer Augusto Cury, of Avante.

Impact of the STF crisis on strategies

The STF crisis, triggered by messages that exposed the relationship between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and businessman Daniel Vorcaro, has been seen as a factor splashing onto Lula’s image. The Centrão understands that official neutrality in the presidential race can secure greater leverage in legislative negotiations, regardless of who wins.

Official neutrality and the pursuit of governability

Although they have changed their internal assessment, Centrão parties maintain their position of remaining officially neutral. The central argument is that neutrality favors electing robust caucuses in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, compelling the future president to negotiate with these parties to ensure governability.

Runoff outlook

In addition to the PoderData/Aya survey, a Quaest poll released on September 7 showed Flávio and Lula tied at 41% each in a runoff. This convergence between polls reinforces the Centrão’s perception that Flávio has become the most promising candidate given the current scenario.

With reporting from Poder360, Metrópoles.