GERP Poll Shows Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead in Runoff
Polling institute has registered results highlighting the PL candidate's lead
The GERP poll, registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), shows Flávio Bolsonaro with a four-point lead over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in voting intentions for the 2026 runoff election. The survey is part of BBC News Brasil's Poll Tracker, which aggregates results from several institutes to estimate the current state of public opinion.
Flávio Bolsonaro's lead in the BBC poll tracker
The BBC News Brasil Poll Tracker uses a statistical model that weights results from institutes such as Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, MDA, and GERP. According to the tracker's interactive chart, Flávio Bolsonaro appears four points ahead of Lula, standing at 49% to 45% in the latest surveys published through Monday morning (10/12).
Details of the GERP poll
The GERP survey was registered under number BR-00466/2026 and interviewed 2,520 people aged 16 and older between October 13 and 15, with a margin of error of two percentage points. The study was commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo and is included in the BBC Tracker's analyses.
Comparison with other polls of the week
During the same week, other polls were released: Quaest (BR-08729/2026) interviewed 2,154 people between October 10 and 13, and AtlasIntel, commissioned by BTG Pactual, began interviews on October 9, concluding on October 14. All institutes recorded results reinforcing Flávio Bolsonaro's lead in the second round.
Methodology and transparency
The BBC Tracker considers only polls registered with the TSE, ensuring transparency in data collection. Institutes must follow specific methodological guidelines, such as presenting a predefined list of candidates in prompted surveys. The model smooths out short-term fluctuations while capturing broader trends in voting intentions.
What the GERP poll reveals about voters' choice
In addition to voting intentions, the GERP poll also assessed the firmness of voters' choice, asking whether they could change candidates before election day. The findings indicate that a considerable share still considers switching their vote, although the majority already decides in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro.
Next steps before the election
With the vote scheduled for October 25, poll results, including GERP's, will continue to be monitored. BBC News Brasil's Poll Tracker will continue to update voting intention estimates as new surveys are released, keeping voters informed about the race's evolution.
With information from BBC, G1, VEJA.
Source: BBC, G1, VEJA