Numerical Shift in Minas Gerais Raises Alarm for Presidential Race

The numerical shift of Flávio Bolsonaro over Lula in Minas Gerais, released this Tuesday (8), has drawn attention to the state, which historically aligns with presidential winners.

What the Numerical Change Indicates for the PL Candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro's voting intentions rose from 35% to 40%, while Lula's dropped from 38% to 37%. Within the three-point margin of error, the candidates remain technically tied, but the president's three-point advantage has now become a three-point disadvantage.

Why Minas Gerais Holds Weight in the National Race

From 1989 to 2022, the candidate who won the presidential election also received the most votes from Minas Gerais residents in the decisive round. This pattern makes Minas Gerais an important barometer for the final outcome.

Comparison with Other Southeastern States

In the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Flávio also appears ahead of Lula in a potential second round. In the Southeast region, the national poll showed 43% for Flávio and 34% for Lula. This contrasts with the 41% to 41% tie observed nationwide, indicating a region more favorable to the PL candidate.

Impact of Margin of Error and Regional Distribution

In Minas Gerais, the tie falls within the margin of error. In São Paulo, however, the eight-point difference surpasses the two-point margin, and in Rio de Janeiro, the six-point difference approaches the threshold of a technical tie. These variations underscore the ongoing uncertainty of the race.

Context of the Quaest Poll for 2026

The same national Quaest poll, set to be released on September 14, also includes questions regarding the Banco Master case, the crisis within the STF (Supreme Federal Court), and voter exposure to electoral propaganda. The survey comprised 2,004 interviews, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of approximately two percentage points.

With information from G1, VEJA.