Sandro Alex on the Rise: What Polls Say for Paraná Governor

As the first round of the Paraná gubernatorial elections approaches, public interest in the candidates has intensified, with Sandro Alex (PSD) garnering significant attention. The latest polls reveal a competitive landscape, showing the candidate, who is backed by current Governor Ratinho Júnior (PSD), solidifying his position among the leading contenders.

The First Round of the Paraná Elections

According to the most recent surveys, Sandro Alex (PSD) is a key figure in the Paraná gubernatorial race. The Quaest poll, released prior to the first round, places Senator Sérgio Moro (PL) in the lead with 43% of valid votes, followed by Sandro Alex with 29% and Requião Filho (PDT) with 27%. The survey, commissioned by RPC, interviewed 2004 voters between October 2 and 3, with a two-percentage-point margin of error.

In contrast, an AtlasIntel poll, which surveyed 1,828 voters between September 27 and October 2, shows Moro with 44.7% of valid votes, Requião Filho with 31.6%, and Sandro Alex with 20.2%. Meanwhile, Real Time Big Data, in a poll released on October 2, indicated Moro with 37%, Sandro Alex with 29%, and Requião Filho with 24%. This divergence in results creates uncertainty regarding Moro's primary opponent in a potential second round.

Performance in Total Votes and Spontaneous Polls

Analyzing total votes, the Quaest poll records Moro at 36%, Sandro Alex at 25% — an increase from his previous 20% — and Requião Filho at 23%. In Quaest's spontaneous poll, where candidates' names are not prompted, Sandro Alex also showed growth, rising from 9% to 16% of mentions, while Moro went from 21% to 26%, and Requião Filho from 11% to 13%. A significant 40% of the electorate remains undecided in this category.

Sandro Alex's Second-Round Scenarios

Second-round simulations conducted by Quaest suggest that Sandro Alex plays a significant role in the ongoing race. In a direct confrontation with Sérgio Moro, the PSD candidate registers 37% of voting intentions, compared to Moro's 42%. This level represents a substantial increase for Sandro Alex, who had polled at 29% in the previous survey.

Another scenario tested shows Sandro Alex with 44% of the votes in a contest against Requião Filho, who registers 32%. In this instance, Sandro Alex also demonstrates growth, moving from 38% to the current 44%. The Quaest poll, with a 95% confidence level, highlights the dynamic nature of Paraná's electoral race.

Uncertainty on the Eve of the First Round

Despite Moro leading in all polls, the situation for second place remains uncertain. Quaest indicates a technical tie between Sandro Alex and Requião Filho in valid votes, while Real Time Big Data suggests Sandro Alex holds an advantage over Requião Filho, outside the margin of error. AtlasIntel, on the other hand, places Requião Filho in second place with a lead over Sandro Alex. This divergence among the surveys maintains an atmosphere of anticipation regarding the first-round results.

With information from Valor Econômico, Brasil de Fato.