Rio Senate Race in 2026 Gains Prominence in Polls

In recent weeks, the race for the two Senate seats in Rio de Janeiro has dominated national headlines. The cancellation of a televised debate and the release of new vote intention polls have brought the contest into focus, generating significant curiosity among voters still deciding their choices for October.

Datafolha Poll Results from October 3

According to the Datafolha poll released on October 3, former senator Benedita da Silva (PT) leads with 26% of valid vote intentions. Following her, federal deputy Carlos Jordy (PL) appears with 19%, and senator Carlos Portinho (PL) with 18%. Deputy Pedro Paulo (PSD) registers 13%, while councilwoman Mônica Benício (PSOL) has 9%.

Variations in Datafolha Polls from October 2

Another Datafolha poll, conducted between September 28 and October 1, showed Benedita da Silva with 19% support, and Carlos Portinho and Carlos Jordy tied at 13% each. In the same survey, Pedro Paulo received 8% and Mônica Benício, 7%.

Triple Tie in Quaest Poll

Quaest, which interviewed 3,204 voters between October 2 and 3, showed a technical tie among Carlos Jordy (17%), Carlos Portinho (16%), and Benedita da Silva (16%). Pedro Paulo stood at 10% and Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) at 9%.

How Voting Works at the Ballot Box

For the Senate, each voter is entitled to two votes and must choose two different candidates. Polls usually present two types of surveys: “stimulated,” which provides a complete list of candidates, and “spontaneous,” which records responses without a list. Results vary by method but maintain the trend of a close contest among the three main names.

Undecided and Null Votes Remain Relevant

In all polls, a significant portion of respondents remains undecided or intends to cast a null vote. In the Datafolha poll of October 3, 15% of respondents declared indecision, and 14% indicated an intention to cast a null or blank vote. In the Quaest poll, 6% were undecided, and 18% opted for blank, null, or not voting.

Prospects for the Second Vacancy

In addition to the first vacancy, polls also analyze the scenario for the second seat. In the Datafolha poll of October 3, Carlos Portinho leads the second vacancy with 14%, followed by Mônica Benício with 12%, and Pedro Paulo and Carlos Jordy tied at 11%. Quaest, however, indicates Carlos Portinho and Carlos Jordy tied at 15% for the second vacancy, with Pedro Paulo at 10%.

With the ballot boxes approaching, the continued ties and high rate of indecision suggest that the campaign can still change the landscape, keeping the Rio de Janeiro Senate as one of the most closely watched points in national politics in 2026.

With information from Folha de S.Paulo, Valor Econômico, VEJA.