Why 2026 Presidential Election Polls Are Surging

Understand the factors driving the dispute between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on the eve of the election

In recent hours, the attention of the press and voters has turned to the polls measuring voting intentions for the 2026 presidential election. The proximity of the voting date, set for October 4th, and statements from Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro about the possibility of winning in the first round have boosted interest in the numbers.

What the Latest Polls Reveal

A Datafolha poll released on Thursday showed Lula with 45% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro with 40%. In the same survey, the second round presents a technical tie, with 48% for Lula and 45% for Flávio. On the BBC aggregator, Lula has 42% and Flávio 39%, with minor candidates totaling around 10% of the electorate.

Factors That Could Lead to a First-Round Victory

Experts point to three elements that could reduce the number of valid votes needed for a majority: strategic voting, high abstention, and a decrease in votes for minor candidates. Strategic voting occurs when voters transfer their support to the candidate they believe is most capable of preventing the opponent's victory. Abstention, which reached 20.95% of the electorate in 2022, usually weighs more heavily on Lula's base.

The Weight of Rejection and the "Lesser Evil"

According to Professor Hilton Fernandes, high rejection rates – around 45% for both main candidates – could lead voters to choose the "lesser evil" among them, reinforcing the concentration of votes on the two main names.

Impact of the Campaign and Judicialization

The campaign has been described as low-energy, with the TV Globo debate canceled and few moments of direct confrontation. Analysts like Cila Schulman highlight that the lack of enthusiasm could reduce the appeal of strategic voting. Furthermore, the growing judicialization of the electoral process, as pointed out by Fernandes, could generate insecurity and influence participation.

What to Watch for at the Polls

In addition to the total votes for Lula and Flávio, experts recommend monitoring turnout, the volume of blank and null votes, and performance in major electoral colleges, such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and the Northeastern states. These indicators will help understand whether the election will be concluded in the first round or if it will advance to a second round.

With information from BBC, Brasil 247, O GLOBO.