Poll shows technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for 2026

A new election poll released this Monday, August 24, points to a tight race for the presidency in 2026. The survey, conducted by the Nexus institute in partnership with BTG Pactual, indicates a technical tie between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in both the first and second rounds.

First-round voting intentions

According to the collected data, President Lula, of the Workers' Party (PT), accumulates 41% of voting intentions for the presidential race. He is followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), who registers 37% support among surveyed voters. Considering the standard margin of error of two percentage points, the difference between the two candidates is not statistically significant, thus representing a technical tie in the first-round simulation.

Second-round simulation

The race remains balanced when projecting a potential second round in the election. In the simulation conducted by the poll, Lula reaches 46% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro obtains 45%. The difference of just one percentage point reinforces how tight the electoral battle is between the two most cited names in the current political landscape.

Survey methodology

The study was based on interviews with 2,006 voters, conducted by telephone. The data collection period occurred between August 21 and 23. The official registration of the survey with the Superior Electoral Court is BR-09028/2026, ensuring compliance with Brazilian electoral regulations for the publication of opinion polls.

Tight race

The release of the figures highlights the polarization and competitiveness of the electoral landscape for 2026. The close preference rates suggest that the winner will depend on factors that could change throughout the year, keeping political observers focused on the movements of both candidates.

With information from CartaCapital.