Electoral polls test scenarios between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

The Brazilian electoral landscape is witnessing a series of new voting intention polls that pit President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a direct showdown. The issue gained prominence with the announcement of a national survey by AtlasIntel, scheduled for Thursday, the 10th, as well as the recent release of regional data by the Quaest institute and Real Time Big Data. These polls assess the performance of the two figures across different states and segments of the national electorate.

National scenario and the new AtlasIntel poll

The AtlasIntel poll will show the contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro less than a month before the first round. The survey takes place amid a Supreme Court crisis involving Alexandre de Moraes, André Mendonça and messages from Daniel Vorcaro, and includes a specific block on voters' perception of Banco Master. In addition to first‑ and second‑round scenarios, the institute will measure rejection and voter confidence regarding the two politicians to manage 13 areas such as the economy, crime and anti‑corruption efforts.

Performance of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the Northeast

Recent data from the Quaist institute, collected between August 24 and 29, show that Lula maintains the lead in the Northeast region but faces variations depending on the state and voter profile. In five of the six surveyed states (Bahia, Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco and Maranhão), the left‑wing candidate opened more than a 30‑point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in stimulated first‑round voting intention. The exception was Alagoas, where the margin in Lula’s favor was 15 points.

Religious division between Catholics and evangelicals

Religion has emerged as a key electoral dividing factor in the Northeast states evaluated by Quaist. Lula leads overwhelmingly among Catholics, surpassing 50% of voting intentions in Alagoas and Paraíba, and reaching 60% in the other states. Among evangelical voters, Flávio Bolsonaro performs best: in Paraíba there is a tie at 35%, while in Alagoas the senator leads with 48% against 25% for Lula. In Bahia, Pernambuco and Maranhão, Lula’s numeric advantage among evangelicals falls within the margin of error.

Voting intentions in the state of Sergipe

Another recent survey, carried out by Real Time Big Data between August 31 and September 3, measured voting intentions in Sergipe. In the stimulated first‑round scenario, Lula leads the race with 58% against 21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. In the spontaneous poll, the president records 32% of voting intentions, while the senator reaches 16%. The Sergipe survey interviewed 1,600 voters and was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under code BR-09766/2026.

Campaign strategies and candidate rejection

The evangelical electorate’s resistance to Lula has motivated moves in Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, which held its first Northeast agenda in Alagoas, attending an Assembly of God convention. Simultaneously, the upcoming AtlasIntel survey aims to deepen rejection indicators, directly asking which of the two names causes more concern for the country's future or which one voters reject more for the Presidency of the Republic.

With information from VEJA, CartaCapital, R7.