2026 Electoral Survey: Quaest shows Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro

In the second half of August, the first poll commissioned by Globo for the 2026 elections was released, placing former President Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro. The result sparked great interest among the press and voters, who await the next measurements.

National voting intention according to the Quaest poll

The poll released on August 14 showed Lula (PT) with 38% of voting intentions in the first round and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 31%. Other candidates recorded lower percentages, such as Renan Santos (Missão) with 8% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 6%.

Details of the Quaest poll methodology

The survey interviewed 2,004 people between August 10 and 13. The declared margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The poll registration is BR-06773/2026.

Upcoming polls by Globo and Datafolha

Until October 3, the eve of the first round, Globo and the newspaper O Globo will publish a total of 130 electoral polls. The surveys will be carried out by the institutes Quaest and Datafolha and will address contests for the Senate, the Presidency of the Republic, and the state and Federal District governments.

Datafolha poll in Pernambuco

Datafolha scheduled a new survey in Pernambuco, to be conducted between August 18 and 20, with 1,204 respondents. The maximum expected margin of error is three percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The poll registration is PE-07041/2026. The questionnaire includes voting intention for president, presenting a list of 13 candidates, among them Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Zema and Renan Santos.

What the numbers reveal about the race

Quaest data indicate that the presidential race is still concentrated between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with a 7‑point difference. The Datafolha poll in Pernambuco will aim to measure the same contest in the state, as well as test hypothetical second‑round match‑ups between Lula and Flávio, Lula and Caiado, Lula and Zema, and Lula and Renan Santos.

With information from G1, VEJA, Folha de S.Paulo.