Quaest poll brings new data on São Paulo governor race

The release of a new Quaest poll this Tuesday, August 25, brought the voting intention rates for the government of the state of São Paulo. The survey interviewed 1,800 voters between August 21 and 24 to gauge the electoral race scenario.

First-round stimulated poll scenario

In the stimulated poll format, where the list of candidates is presented to the interviewed voters, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) appears with 40%. Fernando Haddad (PT) registers 27% of voting intentions in the same poll.

Other names scoring in the stimulated poll are Policial Edjane (Agir), with 2%, alongside Vera Lúcia (PSTU), Carlos Machado (PCB), Izadora Dias (PCO), and Vivian Mendes (UP), each with 1%. Undecided voters total 13%, while blank votes, spoiled votes, and those declaring they will not vote reach 14%.

Spontaneous poll results

When the poll is conducted spontaneously, without displaying the candidates' names to the interviewees, Tarcísio de Freitas scores 21% and Fernando Haddad appears with 9%. In this format, the share of undecided voters reaches 66%, and blank, spoiled, or non-voter votes represent 4%.

Second-round simulation

The survey also tested a second-round matchup between the two front-runners. Tarcísio de Freitas scores 47% of voting intentions, while Fernando Haddad registers 30%. In this simulation, blank and spoiled votes total 12%, and undecided voters account for 11%.

Vote consolidation and voter expectations

According to the data obtained, 67% of the voters surveyed state that their choice of candidate is final. Another 33% declare that they may still change their vote until election day, scheduled for October 4.

Regarding the direction of the state administration, 40% of interviewees advocate changing only what is not working well in the current administration. For 34%, a complete change is necessary, and 22% evaluate that the next governor should continue the work currently being done. Furthermore, 37% state they want an independent governor, 33% prefer an ally of Flávio Bolsonaro, and 26% opt for an ally of Lula.

Poll methodology

The poll was commissioned by Globo and interviewed 1,800 people aged 16 or older. The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points up or down, with a 95% confidence level. The official registration of the study with the Superior Electoral Court is SP-06946/2026.

With information from G1, Estadão.