Latest Poll Measures Gap Between Tarcísio and Haddad in São Paulo

With the São Paulo gubernatorial election scheduled for October 4, the latest polls released this Tuesday bring figures that explain the prominence of the race between Tarcísio de Freitas and Fernando Haddad in the news.

Quaest Poll Measures Gap Between Tarcísio and Haddad

Quaest conducted in-person interviews with 1,800 voters between September 25 and 28, testing two first-round scenarios and a direct confrontation for a potential second round. The survey includes questions about candidate recognition, voting potential, rejection rates, and voter decisiveness. It also investigates candidates' association with the support of Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula, in addition to evaluating Tarcísio's administration approval.

Atlas/Estadão Poll Results

In the Atlas/Estadão poll, also released this Tuesday, Tarcísio de Freitas holds 53.3% of voting intentions in the first round, while Fernando Haddad registers 40.1%. Other candidates total 1.8%, and blank/null votes reach 3.1%, with 1.7% undecided. In a second-round scenario, Tarcísio reaches 54.9% against Haddad's 42.1%.

Comparison of Voting Intentions in Polls

The UOL survey, conducted between September 22 and 24 with 1,610 in-person interviews, indicates Tarcísio with 50% of voting intentions and Haddad with 30%. Considering only valid votes, Tarcísio reaches 56% and Haddad 34%. The margin of error in all surveys is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.

Electorate Profile and Decisiveness Level

In the polls, most voters (71% in the UOL survey) state they are fully decided on their vote. The decisiveness rate is higher among men, older voters, and those with a family income above five salaries. Among Tarcísio's voters, 76% are convinced of their choice; among Haddad's, 77% have the same certainty.

Evaluation of Tarcísio de Freitas's Administration

Tarcísio's government has an approval rating of 53% among São Paulo residents in the Atlas/Estadão poll, with 39% disapproval. In the UOL survey, the governor's job approval reaches 64%, while disapproval stands at 31%.

With information from VEJA, Estadão, UOL.