São Paulo Senate: Who Leads the Polls in October 2026

Vote intention polls released in the first week of October put the São Paulo Senate race in focus, generating great interest among voters and analysts. The results of these surveys determine which candidates can secure the two seats at stake.

Datafolha Puts Marina Silva Ahead

The Datafolha survey, published on October 1st, shows Marina Silva (Rede) with 16% of vote intentions, followed by Simone Tebet (PSB) and André do Prado (PL) with 15% each, and Guilherme Derrite (PP) with 14%.

The study interviewed 1,610 voters between September 28th and 30th, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. Each voter can choose two different candidates.

Quaest Records Derrite's Advance

In the Quaest poll, released on September 29th, Guilherme Derrite (PP) leads with 18%, while Marina Silva and Simone Tebet appear with 15% each, and André do Prado with 12%.

The survey, which interviewed 1,800 people, also has a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level.

Futura/100% Cidades Indicates Strong Support for Derrite

According to the Futura/100% Cidades poll, conducted between September 29th and October 1st, Derrite registers 40.8% of vote intentions, Marina Silva 36.2%, Simone Tebet 35.5%, and André do Prado 32.8%.

This poll interviewed 1,600 voters by telephone, with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points and a 95% confidence level.

Impact of Undecided Voters and Blank Ballots

In all polls, undecided, blank, or null voters represent a significant portion of the electorate, varying between 12% and 20.6% depending on the survey.

These voters could be decisive in determining the winning combinations, as each voter is entitled to two votes.

Outlook for the Race

The results indicate that the race is concentrated among four names – Derrite, Silva, Tebet, and Prado – whose percentages vary according to each poll's methodology.

With the two seats open, the combination of candidates chosen by voters will determine who is elected, keeping the race open until election day.

With information from Folha de S.Paulo, Valor Econômico, CNN Brasil.