Quaest poll shows Lula leading and Cury emerging

The Quaest poll released on September 2 shows that Lula leads the first round with 37% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 29%. Augusto Cury, from the Avante party, appears in third place with 10%. The survey, conducted in-person with 2,004 Brazilians aged 16 or older between August 30 and September 1, has a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-07065/2026.

Stimulated scenario results

• Lula (PT): 37%
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 29%
• Augusto Cury (Avante): 10%
• Renan Santos (Missão): 3%
• Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 1%
• Romeu Zema (Novo): 1%
• Samara Martins (UP): 1%
• Undecided: 11%
• Blank/null/won't vote: 7%

Results without Pablo Marçal

• Lula (PT): 37%
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 29%
• Augusto Cury (Avante): 10%
• Renan Santos (Missão): 3%
• Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 1%
• Romeu Zema (Novo): 1%
• Samara Martins (UP): 1%
• Undecided: 11%
• Blank/null/won't vote: 7%

Second-round simulation

• Lula: 42%
• Flávio Bolsonaro: 41%
• Undecided: 4%
• Blank/null/won't vote: 13%

Rejection and government approval

• Lula's rejection: 53%
• Flávio Bolsonaro's rejection: 55%
• Lula government approval: 45%
• Lula government disapproval: 48%

Cury's impact on voting intentions

Augusto Cury's rise to 10% in voting intentions has taken up space from candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who register 3% and 1% respectively. Cury's growth is attributed to his performance among independent voters, where he reaches 24% and places numerically ahead of Lula.

Voter reaction to candidates

• Flávio Bolsonaro: 55% know him and wouldn't vote for him
• Lula: 53% know him and wouldn't vote for him
• Pablo Marçal: 44%
• Ronaldo Caiado: 40%
• Romeu Zema: 38%
• Renan Santos: 28%
• Augusto Cury: 25%
• Rui Costa Pimenta: 23%

Conclusion

The Quaest poll maintains polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, while Augusto Cury reaching the 10% voting intention threshold is already altering the race's dynamics, drawing votes away from centrist candidates and creating a new point of attention for the frontrunners. The result will be monitored in the coming days as more polls are released.

With information from G1, Estadão, VEJA.