Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Quaest Poll in 2nd Round

The Quaest poll, commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo, revealed on September 14 that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leads Lula (PT) in the 2nd round with 42% against 40%, marking his first numerical advantage since April. The survey, which interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or older nationwide between September 10 and 13, has a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.

Technical Tie and Variations by Gender

Women: Lula 41%, Flávio 38% (3-point difference)
Men: data not specified in the source

Age and Income Segments

16 to 34 years old: Flávio 43%, Lula 37% (6-point difference)
35 to 59 years old: Flávio 44%, Lula 39% (5-point difference)
60 years or older: Lula 45%, Flávio 39% (6-point difference)
Above 2 minimum wages up to 5 minimum wages: Flávio 46%, Lula 36% (10-point difference)
More than 5 minimum wages: Flávio 47%, Lula 34% (13-point difference)

Regions and Ethnic Groups

Southeast: Flávio 47%, Lula 31% (16-point difference)
Central-West/North: Flávio 46%, Lula 37% (9-point difference)
Northeast: Flávio 60%, Lula 28% (32-point difference)
Mixed-race: Lula 44%, Flávio 38% (6-point difference)
White: Flávio 48%, Lula 33% (15-point difference)
Black: Flávio 36%, Lula 48% (12-point difference)

Impact of Mobilization and Street Presence

According to Sóstenes Cavalcante, leader of the PL, the poll is “delayed” in relation to Flávio's growth, which had already been observed about two weeks prior.
The PL reportedly maintained a more intense schedule of events, with four rallies compared to one by the PT, and more noticeable mobilization in the streets.
Lula, in turn, reportedly maintained an executive chief's routine, while Flávio was on parliamentary recess, which could influence his availability for rallies.

Balanced Rejection Between Candidates

Regarding rejection, 55% of respondents state they would never vote for Lula, and the same percentage rejects Flávio.

With information from G1, Poder360.