Lula Advances in Minas and SP, Flávio Gains Lead in Rio

In the latest round of Quaest polls, the presidential race shows ties in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, while Flávio Bolsonaro gains a lead in Rio de Janeiro, drawing increased attention from voters and campaign teams. The scenario reflects the dynamics of each state, with Lula consolidating support in traditionally decisive regions and Flávio seeking to expand his base in the Northeast.

Lula Advances in Minas Gerais

In Minas Gerais, the poll indicates that Lula is advancing in both the first and second rounds. The Workers' Party candidate appears with 35% in the initial stage, up from 31% in the September 8 poll, and maintains 40% of voting intentions in the second round, matching Flávio. Flávio, in turn, rose from 27% to 30% during the period. The result keeps the state open, with a technical tie within the margin of error.

Lula Maintains Tie in SP

In São Paulo, Lula and Flávio remain technically tied in the first round, with 31% of voting intentions each. In the second round, Flávio leads with 42%, while Lula rose from 33% to 36%. The two-percentage-point margin of error keeps the dispute fierce, with the state being central to the Workers' Party candidate's victory in 2022.

Flávio Gains Lead in Rio de Janeiro

Rio de Janeiro shows the largest difference in favor of Flávio, with 37% in the first round, compared to Lula's 30%, and 44% in the second round, against the Workers' Party candidate's 36%. The poll shows that Flávio advanced from 34% to 37% in the first round, while Lula fell from 32% to 30%. The result highlights Lula's need to intensify his campaign in the capital of Rio de Janeiro.

Support Dynamics in Key Cities

Lula participated in an event in Rio de Janeiro's capital, alongside artists like Chico Buarque, Paulinho da Viola, and Zeca Pagodinho, without the presence of Eduardo Paes. Flávio, in turn, held a live session with allies such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ricardo Nunes, and had the support of Douglas Ruas as a gubernatorial candidate. In Minas, Lula was joined by Fernando Haddad, Marina Silva, and Simone Tebet on his platform.

Prospects in the Northeast and Federal District

In the Northeast, Lula leads comfortably in Pernambuco and Ceará, with 54% and 55% of voting intentions, respectively. Flávio, however, maintains 21% in Pernambuco and 23% in Ceará. In the Federal District, Flávio has 33% in the first round, surpassing Lula, who has 32%. In a potential second round, Flávio would have 49% against the Workers' Party candidate's 38%.

With information from O GLOBO.