Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro draw closer in runoff

As the presidential election approaches, the gap between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and candidate Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed, keeping voters highly attentive to what could happen in the runoff.

Lula maintains a slight lead in the runoff

According to the Carta/Colectta Aggregator, which consolidates data from electoral polls registered with the TSE, the PT candidate has a 0.7 percentage point lead in runoff simulations: 44.7% against 44% for Flávio, resulting in a technical tie within the average margin of error of the polls, which ranges between 2% and 3%.

History of fluctuations in voting intentions

In May, shortly after Intercept Brasil revealed ties between Flávio and banker Daniel Vorcaro in the Master Case, Lula opened a lead of more than five points. Between February and April, prior to the disclosures, Flávio had taken the lead, with an advantage of nearly two percentage points.

First round: Lula still ahead

In the first-round simulations, Lula remains ahead with 38.8% of voting intentions, compared to 33.4% for Flávio. Augusto Cury, from Avante, occupies third place with 7.5% of intentions, still far behind the two frontrunners.

How the Carta/Colectta Aggregator works

For each candidate, the aggregator presents a projection based on the set of electoral polls registered with the Electoral Justice and published throughout the campaign. Each survey appears as a dot, while the dashed line represents a weighted moving average, updated daily.

The shaded band indicates the degree of uncertainty in the trend, which decreases when there are many similar polls and increases when data is scarce or divergent, taking into account the margins of error reported by the polling institutes. The weight of each poll varies according to its recency, number of respondents, and collection methodology; when an institute publishes multiple surveys in the same period, only the most recent is considered.

With information from CartaCapital.