Datafolha poll shows Lula in the lead before the 2026 election

The latest Datafolha survey, released on September 24, shows Lula with 40% of voting intentions in the first round and 47% in a projected second round, against Flávio Bolsonaro, who has 36% and 45%. The margin of error will be two percentage points.

What changed in the latest poll

In the most recent poll, Lula (PT) scored 40% in the first round, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 36%. In a projected second round, there was a technical tie, with the president numerically leading 47% to 45%.

How the poll will be released

Datafolha is scheduled to release its new presidential voting intention poll next Thursday, the 1st. There will be 2,506 respondents, interviewed between Monday and Thursday.

Latest polls before the first round

Leading up to the eve of the first round, scheduled for Sunday (4), Datafolha and Quaest have three presidential polls planned. The release is scheduled for Thursday (1st) and Saturday (3rd).

Why the poll matters now

With the election approaching, the poll offers a snapshot of the moment, showing how voters are still not fully informed and how voting intentions evolve in the final stretch of the campaign.

What polls don't do

Polls are not a prediction of the final result. They capture what the voter thinks at the moment they are interviewed and can change before the vote.

Sampling process

For a 2% margin of error, it is necessary to interview 2,401 people. The sample size determines the margin of error and the confidence level, which is typically 95% in Brazilian electoral polls.

Selection methodology

Polls use quota sampling, defining which groups will be represented in the sample. Parameters include gender, age group, and education level.

Data collection methods

Polls can be conducted in person, by phone, or online. Each method can influence the quality of the results, introducing coverage, non-response, or measurement errors.

With information from CartaCapital, G1, BBC.