Atlas Intel Poll Shows Lula and Flávio in Technical Tie

The Atlas Intel poll, conducted between September 24 and 27, revealed that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied in vote intention for the second round, with a margin of error of two percentage points.

Technical Tie Across Almost All Groups

The results show that, in practically all gender, age, education, income, color, and religion brackets, the difference between the candidates falls within the margin of error, configuring a technical tie.

Significant Variations Among Women and in the Southeast

Among women, Lula's advantage over Flávio dropped from 10 points to 3 in the middle of the month but regained the lead, ending with 46% to 37%. In the Southeast, Flávio widened his advantage from 8 to 16 points in the middle of the month but ended up in a technical tie, with 43% to 37%.

Segments with Leadership Change

The survey also highlighted changes in specific segments: among lower-income voters, Lula's advantage increased from 22 to 26 points; among Catholics, Lula rose from 46% to 50%; among the more educated, Flávio's advantage increased from 15 to 18 points; among evangelicals, Flávio maintains the lead.

Candidates' Political Activity

Throughout the month, Lula focused his agenda on official and campaign events, with a greater presence in the Southeast in the final stretch, announcing an adjustment to the Bolsa Família program and a provisional measure that prohibited online betting. Flávio, in turn, worked in the Northeast, announced Brazil's entry into the Shield of the Americas, and faced a controversy involving Nossa Senhora Aparecida.

Controversial Cases Explored by Candidates

The Master case was explored by both candidates: Lula associated Flávio with Daniel Vorcaro, while Flávio highlighted the banker's relationships with politicians and STF ministers and tried to link Lula to Alexandre Moraes, who allegedly exchanged messages with the banker.

Poll Data and Methodology

The poll surveyed 2,004 respondents aged 16 or older, with a confidence level of 95% and registration number BR-06520/2026.

With information from G1.