New Quaest poll provides overview of presidential race

The Quaest poll will be released this Wednesday, September 2, just under a month before the first-round vote, scheduled for October 4. The survey arrives at a time when campaigns are already starting electoral advertising on radio and TV.

How Quaest measures voting intention

Data collection was conducted between August 30 and September 1, with 2,004 voters aged 16 and older. First, the questionnaire spontaneously asks if the voter has already chosen who they intend to vote for. Then, two scenarios with 13 names are presented, including Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Pablo Marçal, and others. Respondents indicate whether their choice is definitive or if it could still change.

Testing scenarios for the second round

Among the five second-round matchups, Quaest includes the Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro duel. Matchups between the president and Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema are also simulated. In all simulations, voters can choose between the two candidates, vote blank, null, or declare they are undecided.

Candidate image and political rejection

A specific block evaluates the perception of moderation regarding Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, as well as who is seen as the best name for the left and the right. The poll also asks which scenario generates more fear: the return of the Bolsonaro family to power or another term for Lula, allowing spontaneous answers of fear of both or neither.

Influence of debates, advertising, and proposals

Respondents rank which elements most influence their decision: performance in television debates, support from politicians or celebrities, the opinion of friends and family, radio and TV advertising, proposals, and ideology. It is also verified whether a candidate's absence from a debate alters voting disposition.

Economic perception and corruption issues

The survey resumes the evaluation of the Lula government's approval rating and delves deeper into the perception of the economy, asking if the situation improved, worsened, or remained the same over the last twelve months and how food prices behaved. There are also questions about the family income's ability to keep up with rising prices and about the voter's greatest concern for the country. Another block investigates the importance of characteristics such as not being involved in corruption, being tough on crime, having political experience, and demonstrating a commitment to democracy.

Comparison with other recent polls

Before the release of the new Quaest round, the Datafolha poll from August 21 showed Lula ahead with 39% of voting intentions against 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The last Quaest survey, from August 14, indicated 38% for Lula and 31% for Flávio. In Paraná, the Real Time Big Data poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading with 52% in the second round against 34% for Lula, reflecting important regional variations.

With information from VEJA, O GLOBO, Poder360.