Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tie in runoff and Bolsa Família enters.

The Quaest poll, released this Monday, shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in the runoff, with 42% of voting intentions against the president's 41%. The difference of just one percentage point is within the two-point margin of error, characterizing a technical tie. The analysis highlights that the poll was the first to measure the impact of the Bolsa Família adjustment, announced by the Planalto Palace the previous week, which raises the minimum amount from R$ 600 to R$ 691 and the average benefit from R$ 675 to R$ 777.

Bolsa Família adjustment takes effect between voting rounds

The increase in the social program will take effect between the first and second rounds of the elections. The R$ 600 floor was established under the Jair Bolsonaro administration, when the Emergency Aid was converted into Bolsa Família. The measure was criticized by Flávio, who accused Lula of trying to "buy the votes of the poorest" and described the adjustment as an "act of desperation" in the final stretch of the election.

First-round simulations show technical tie

In the first-round simulation, Lula appears with 37% of voting intentions, technically tied with Flávio, who has 33%. This is the first time during the campaign that the two candidates appear tied in the first round. In scenarios tested against Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, Lula leads against Flávio in some cases, while in the simulation against Romeu Zema, Lula leads.

Pernambuco poll expands presidential race scenario

A new poll by Real Time Big Data, to be released on September 28, will measure voting intentions in Pernambuco. The survey will include 1,600 interviews, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of approximately two percentage points. Among the 14 candidates evaluated are Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Zema, Augusto Cury, and others. The poll will also test a runoff between Flávio and Lula and measure candidate rejection rates.

Impact of polls on the election campaign

The Quaest poll, commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper O GLOBO, was also the first to be conducted after the STF session that discussed the possibility of opening an investigation against Minister Alexandre de Moraes. A total of 2,004 voters were interviewed between September 17 and 20. The survey recorded negative variations of two percentage points in voting intentions for Flávio among independents, dropping from 36% to 34%, while Lula maintained 26%. The poll shows that 31% of respondents declared they would vote blank, null, or won't vote, and 9% were undecided.

With information from O GLOBO, VEJA.