2026 El Niño Brings Record Warming to Equatorial Pacific

Daily temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific have already exceeded 3°C, surpassing the peak recorded in 2015. This early warming indicates that the 2026 El Niño could become the most intense since records began.

Record Warming in Niño 3.4

Daily monitoring by Climate Reanalyzer, a platform from the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, showed an anomaly of +3.04°C on September 20. This reading surpasses the highest daily value ever recorded in the Niño 3.4 region, which is used to track the phenomenon's evolution.

NOAA Classification and Projections

According to NOAA, anomalies above 2°C are classified as “very strong.” José Marengo, from Cemaden, confirms that the September monthly average, already at 2.1°C, places the event in the very strong category. On September 10, the agency warned of the possibility that the 2026 El Niño could be the most intense since 1950, with a peak expected between November 2026 and January 2027.

Health Risks Highlighted by the WHO

The World Health Organization (WHO) described El Niño as a “major health threat.” Teresa Zakaria, from the WHO, emphasized that the phenomenon could intensify heatwaves, worsen air quality from wildfires, and promote outbreaks of malnutrition, cholera, malaria, dengue, and chikungunya. She called for preventive measures to stop these risks from turning into crises.

Agricultural and Social Impacts in Brazil

Inter-institutional studies indicate that the very strong El Niño will increase the likelihood of above-average rainfall in the South and reduce precipitation in the central-north, affecting the production of beans, soybeans, corn, fruit, cassava, coffee, and vegetables. In Minas Gerais, the risk of drought, fire, and irregular rainfall increases, putting pressure on both rural and urban areas. The panel from Inmet, Inpe, ANA, and other agencies predicts the phenomenon will persist until at least early 2027.

Challenges for the Public Response

Experts point out that the combination of ocean warming and global climate change can make even moderate events more severe. The WHO recommends strengthening epidemiological surveillance and securing medical supplies in high-risk areas. Domestically, the integration of artificial intelligence into decision-support systems aims to improve vulnerability detection and the prioritization of interventions.

With reporting from G1, Folha de S.Paulo, and Estado de Minas.