Super-Intense El Niño Increases Mortality Worldwide

A super-intense El Niño has already shattered temperature records in the central Pacific, reaching 3.05 °C, topping the 3.02 °C recorded in November 2015, the highest in 150 years of modern records. Forecasts indicate that the peak could reach 4.0 °C in November and December, according to the average of 14 climate models analyzed by Zeke Hausfather.

Record temperature before the peak

The ONI (Nino3.4) Index, measured with a 30-year moving average, is already just 0.01 °C below the 2015 record. This indicates that the phenomenon is largely outpacing previous events and could be the strongest in at least a thousand years.

Impact on global mortality

Global warming, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, is already supercharging extreme weather events that kill people. El Niño further intensifies these impacts, having already caused record fires in Indonesia, rainfall deficits in India, and droughts in Central America and the Caribbean that harm agricultural production and trade.

Weather extremes in different regions

In South America, Peru and Chile are facing severe flooding, and access to Machu Picchu has been compromised. In the Southern Hemisphere, summer is expected to be hotter and drier, raising the risk of wildfires in Australia and South Africa. The Pacific Ocean could see stronger typhoons, while Atlantic hurricanes remain suppressed.

International preparation and mobilization

The World Meteorological Organization has launched its largest mobilization in 50 years to support national meteorological services with life-saving forecasts. The UN also emphasized the urgent need for climate action to protect populations, as Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the planet is in the danger zone of extreme weather events.

Example in California

Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in California to mobilize resources ahead of the storm season. The state could face widespread coastal flooding, heavy rain at lower elevations, and blizzards in the mountains. A 6-to-12-inch increase in coastal water levels could threaten 170,000 people and cause $60 billion in property damage.

Conclusion

The super-intense El Niño, combining with global warming, is driving unprecedented weather extremes that increase mortality worldwide. Preparedness and mitigation depend on immediate action and policies to reduce carbon emissions.

With information from The Guardian, CNN.