Datafolha Shows Lula with 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 36% in First Round
New survey outlines presidential race scenario with a margin of error of two percentage points
Released this Thursday (24), the new Datafolha poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 40% of voting intentions in the first round of the presidential election. Candidate Flávio Bolsonaro holds 36% of voter preference in the survey registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-00304/2026.
The first-round figures
The gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro stands at four percentage points, which is at the edge of the margin of error of two points plus or minus. In the previous survey, conducted a week earlier, the PT member had 39% and the senator registered 36%, in a statistical tie. The poll was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, interviewing 2,002 people between September 22 and 23, with a 95% confidence level.
The prompted poll list also features writer Augusto Cury with 5%, Ronaldo Caiado with 4%, Renan Santos with 3%, and Romeu Zema and Samara Martins with 1% each. Blank, spoiled, or none of the above votes total 5%, while undecided voters account for 2% of the total.
Runoff scenarios and rejection rates
In runoff simulations, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied, with 47% and 45% of voting intentions, respectively. The institute also measured candidate rejection rates, a metric in which Lula and Flávio tie, with 45% of respondents stating they would not vote for them under any circumstances.
Among the voters surveyed, 80% state they are fully decided on their vote for president, with a decision rate of 87% among Lula supporters and 85% among Flávio Bolsonaro voters.
Reactions from the campaigns
The result brought brief relief to the PT campaign following weeks of gains by their opponent. Government allies point out that the scenario reflects a strategic realignment and final-stretch campaign efforts. On the other hand, the senator's team maintained its bet on tactical voting to attract voters from other right-wing candidates.
With information from G1, Folha de S.Paulo, Gazeta do Povo.
Source: G1, Folha de S.Paulo, Gazeta do Povo