AtlasIntel releases electoral poll highlighting candidates for 2026

AtlasIntel completed two electoral polls between September 15 and 20, with results scheduled for release on September 21. The information quickly circulated in the media, generating great interest in the 2026 presidential, state and senatorial contests.

What the São Paulo poll investigates

The São Paulo survey interviewed 1,800 voters and includes a list of presidential candidates such as Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Augusto Cury, as well as names like Marina Silva, Fernando Haddad and Tarcísio de Freitas. Six second‑round scenarios involving Lula are also tested.

For the state government, the questionnaire presents candidates such as Carlos Machado, Fernando Haddad, Izadora Dias, Police Officer Edjane, Tarcísio de Freitas, Vera Lúcia and Vivian Mendes, and assesses the possibility of a runoff between Haddad and Tarcísio.

The poll measures approval or disapproval of President Lula, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and the mayor of the respondent’s municipality, using scales ranging from excellent to terrible and asking whether Brazil and São Paulo are on a good or bad path.

How the Rio de Janeiro poll differs

In Rio de Janeiro, AtlasIntel also conducts 1,800 interviews, registered under number BR-01622/2026. The questionnaire lists 12 names for the presidential race, including Clariana Barão, Edmilson Costa, Augusto Cury, Flávio Bolsonaro, Hertz Dias, Lula, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Rui Costa Pimenta, Samara, Wilson Grassi and Zema.

For the state government, two candidate lists are shown, highlighting Eduardo Paes, Douglas Ruas, André Marinho, Garotinho and others, and includes a test of a possible second round between Paes and Ruas.

In the Senate race, voters can choose twice among 16 names, such as Benedita da Silva, Carlos Jordy, Carlos Portinho, Marcelo Crivella, Mônica Benício and others.

Approval of leaders and main problems cited

Both surveys ask about approval or disapproval of presidents, governors and mayors, as well as rating these leaders’ performance in various categories. They also request assessments of the positive or negative image of figures like Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio Bolsonaro, André do Prado and others.

Respondents may indicate up to three problems that affect their state the most, with options that include health, education, crime, corruption, poverty, social inequality, infrastructure, mobility, housing, sanitation, inflation, environment, unemployment, tax burden, bureaucracy, state finances and household debt.

Confidence in areas of government

In São Paulo, the questionnaire pits Fernando Haddad against Tarcísio de Freitas across ten areas, such as health, education, crime, poverty, anti‑corruption, taxes, job creation, public transport, fiscal balance and infrastructure.

In Rio de Janeiro, the comparison between Eduardo Paes and Douglas Ruas covers similar areas, adding tourism, culture and events to the list.

Margin of error and official registration

Both polls have a margin of error of two percentage points, plus or minus, and a confidence level of 95%. The São Paulo survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-08437/2026, while the Rio de Janeiro poll received registration BR-01622/2026.

Information from VEJA, G1.