Rui Costa leads Quaest poll for Senate in Bahia

The Quaest poll, released this Thursday (24), positions Rui Costa in the lead of the race for the Senate in Bahia, with 23% of voting intentions. The survey, which evaluates the electoral scenario for the 2026 elections, brings the first numbers to stir up the political debate in the state and put Costa's name in the spotlight of searches.

General results of the race in Bahia

In the prompted scenario, where candidates' names are presented to voters, Rui Costa (PT) appears with 23% of voting intentions, maintaining the same percentage recorded on August 27. In second place, Jaques Wagner (PT) scores 17%, also showing no variation compared to the previous poll.

João Roma (PL) registered 11% (it was 7% on August 27), while Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) reached 9% (it was 5%). Other candidates mentioned in the poll include Professor Delliana Ricelli (Psol) with 2%, Marcelo Santtana (DC) with 1%, Marcelo Carvalho (Psol) with 1%, Marcelo Millet (PCO) with 0% (it was 1%), Carlos Sodré (Mobiliza) with 1% (it was 1%), and Gregorio Gould (UP) with 0%.

The poll also points out that 16% of voters would vote blank, null, or do not intend to vote (it was 20%), and 19% declared themselves undecided (it was 22%).

How voters divide their two votes

For the 2026 elections, each state and the Federal District will elect two senators to renew 54 of the 81 seats. Therefore, each voter needs to vote for two different candidates.

When considering only the votes for the first seat, Rui Costa (PT) leads with 32% (it was 33% on August 27). João Roma (PL) appears in second with 16% (it was 11%), followed by Jaques Wagner (PT) with 15% (it was 13%) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) with 8% (it was 4%).

For the second seat, Jaques Wagner (PT) leads with 20% (the same percentage as on August 27). Rui Costa (PT) has 14% (also with no variation), Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) reaches 9% (it was 6%), and João Roma (PL) scores 8% (it was 4%).

Rejection rates and voter decision

Quaest also measured the candidates' rejection rates. Jaques Wagner (PT) is the most rejected, with 40% of voters stating they know him and would not vote for him, maintaining the rate from August 27. Rui Costa (PT) has a rejection rate of 38% (it was 36% in the previous poll).

Among the voters surveyed, 73% (it was 63% on August 27) state that their choice of candidate is definitive, while 26% (it was 37%) say they could still change their vote by the elections, on October 4.

In the spontaneous poll, where names are not presented, 71% of voters are undecided (it was 85% on August 27). Rui Costa (PT) was mentioned by 8% (it was 4%), Jaques Wagner (PT) by 7% (it was 4%), João Roma (PL) by 4% (it was 2%), and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) by 4% (it was 1%).

The methodology behind the poll

The Quaest survey interviewed 900 people aged 16 or older between September 20 and 23. The poll was commissioned by TV Bahia. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%. The registration number at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is BA-01850/2026.

With information from G1, CartaCapital.