Paraná governor poll draws attention in the 2026 elections

In recent weeks, three vote‑intention surveys have been released, presenting different numbers for the race for Paraná’s governorship and sparking immediate interest among voters and analysts. The divergence in results, especially regarding the second place, has raised expectations for a new “nine‑test” that could confirm or challenge the observed trends.

Why the surveys on Paraná’s governorship have gained prominence

The simultaneous announcement of two polls – one by the Real Time Big Data institute and another by IRG Pesquisas – showed Sérgio Moro (PL) leading with more than 40% of intentions, while the candidates for the second slot, Sandro Alex (PSD) and Requião Filho (PDT), swapped positions. This variation highlighted the need for a third measurement that could clarify the race’s dynamics.

Real Time Big Data poll: methodology and scenarios

Started on August 13, the Real Time Big Data poll plans to interview 1,600 voters by August 17, combining telephone and digital approaches with human interviewers and artificial intelligence. The sample was designed to represent gender, age group, education and income, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of roughly two percentage points. The study will test eight candidacies in the first round and three possible second‑round match‑ups, as well as include questions about the two Senate seats and an assessment of Governor Ratinho Junior.

IRG poll: results and implications

Also released on August 13, the IRG Pesquisas poll interviewed 1,350 people between August 8 and 12. In the stimulated first‑round scenario, the ticket of Sergio Moro and Edson Vasconcelos (PL) leads with 40.2% of intentions. Sandro Alex and Rafael Greca (MDB) appear at 24.8%, while Requião Filho and Michele Caputo (Solidariedade) total 21.0%, resulting in a technical tie. Second‑round simulations indicate a tie between the Moro and Sandro Alex tickets, both of which would surpass Requião Filho. The study has a margin of error of 2.67 percentage points and a 95% confidence level.

Paraná Pesquisas: the ‘nine‑test’ of the race

The Paraná Pesquisas institute registered with the TSE under number PR-09048/2026 and began data collection on August 13, ending on August 16, with 1,520 interviews. The poll, commissioned by the Liberal Party (PL), has a 95% confidence level and an estimated margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. The questionnaire includes spontaneous and stimulated questions, presenting eight names in the governorship scenario – among them Sergio Moro, Requião Filho and Sandro Alex – and nine Senate candidates. The methodology foresees probability‑proportional‑to‑size selection, quotas for gender, age, education and income, and audit of at least 30% of the interviews.

What the different polls reveal so far

The first two polls agree that Sérgio Moro occupies the lead, but they differ on the second‑place holder: the Neokemp poll, cited on Esmael’s blog, showed Requião Filho ahead of Sandro Alex, while the IRG poll placed Sandro Alex ahead of Requião Filho. The margins of error of both surveys allow overlap between the two candidates, indicating that the second slot is still unsettled. The next release from Paraná Pesquisas, scheduled for August 17, will be the first to appear after the official start of the electoral campaign, according to the TSE calendar, and may provide the long‑awaited “nine‑test” for the gubernatorial and senatorial races.

With information from VEJA, Gazeta do Povo, Blog do Esmael.