Poll points to scenarios for Lula and Renan Santos in the Presidency

The release of new polls on voting intentions and preparations for presidential debates are driving the race for the Planalto Palace. Recent surveys present regional and national simulations involving President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other contenders for the office.

Electoral performance in the South region and other locations

In the survey by Indexa Pesquisas commissioned by Broadcast and released this Wednesday, the 26th, Renan Santos (Missão) appears with 48% of voting intentions in the South region in a potential second round. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) registers 33% in that locality.

In the other Brazilian regions, Lula defeats the Missão candidate. In the Northeast, the score is 61% for Lula and 25% for Santos. The tally in the North marks 49% against 28%; in the Southeast, 42% to 35%; and in the Midwest, 40% to 33%. In the general second-round simulation of this poll, Lula appears with 46% against 34% for Renan Santos.

Results by age group, religion, and income

In the demographic breakdown of the Indexa/Broadcast poll, Lula leads among men (41% to 38%) and women (51% to 30%). The PT member shows an advantage among people aged 16 to 24 (54% to 33%) and over 60 (51% to 28%). Meanwhile, among voters aged 45 to 59, Lula has 40% and Santos scores 39%.

In the religious breakdown, Renan Santos is numerically ahead among evangelicals, with 37% to Lula's 34%. The current president leads among Catholics (50% to 34%), people without religion (51% to 26%), and other religions (61% to 27%). By income, Lula leads in all brackets, registering a technical tie among those who earn more than five minimum wages, where he scores 42% against Santos's 41%.

First-round numbers and other polls

Other surveys present first-round scenarios. In the poll released by Nexus on Monday, the 17th, Lula appears with 41%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 36%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 5%, Renan Santos with 4%, and Romeu Zema (Novo) with 4%.

Meanwhile, the AtlasIntel poll from July 29th pointed to Renan Santos with 7.8% of voting intentions in both scenarios evaluated for the first round.

Statements on debates and technical data

In an interview with VEJA's Ponto de Vista program, the vice-presidential candidate on the Missão ticket, Aroldo Medina, stated that he views the possibility of reaching the second round with optimism. Medina defended the presence of competitors in television debates, amid Lula's decision not to attend the Band meeting on Sunday, the 23rd, following complaints about the presence of other contenders, and Flávio Bolsonaro's strategy to attend only where Lula is present.

The Indexa/Broadcast poll was conducted between August 20 and 23, with 2,000 telephone interviews. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level and registration with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-06366/2026.

With information from Terra, VEJA.