2026 Senate Election Gains Traction in Searches

The race for two-thirds of the Senate seats has taken center stage following the release of polls indicating fierce contests in 24 states and the Federal District. Interest arises because the composition of the Senate could change significantly starting in 2027.

Seat Distribution and Main Contenders

In each federative unit, voters will elect two senators, totaling 54 new seats that will join the 27 incumbents whose terms began in 2022. Quaest polls show that, in at least two states, candidates linked to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appear in the top two positions. In Mato Grosso, for example, Mauro Mendes (União) and Janaína Riva (MDB) lead, while in Mato Grosso do Sul, Capitão Contar (PL) and Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) are prominent.

Regional Alliances and Presidential Support

In Santa Catarina, Carol de Toni (PL), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Esperidião Amin (PP) are technically tied. In the Federal District, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads with 31% of intentions, followed by Leila do Vôlei (PDT) with 27%. In the largest electoral colleges – São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro – the dispute remains more unclear, with candidates from different parties competing for two seats.

Caucus Projections and Political Impact

According to projections based on Quaest polls, the PL could reach 25 senators, an increase of 10 seats compared to the current number. The PSD, on the other hand, could reduce its caucus from 14 to five senators. The PT would maintain nine seats, while the PP would increase from seven to nine. These changes are relevant because an absolute majority in the Senate requires 41 votes, and two-thirds – 54 senators – are necessary for processes such as the impeachment of a Supreme Court justice.

Remuneration and Benefits for Elected Senators

Elected senators will receive a gross monthly subsidy of R$ 46,366.19, effective since February 2025. In addition to the salary, there is a cost-of-living allowance equivalent to the total salary at the beginning and end of the term. Parliamentary expenses are covered by a monthly allowance of R$ 15,000, plus funds for air travel that vary according to the state of origin. Parliamentarians are also entitled to an official apartment in Brasília and, if they do not occupy it, receive a housing allowance of R$ 5,500 monthly.

Expectations for the Legislature from 2027 Onwards

If the projections are confirmed, the PL will have greater influence but will still depend on alliances to approve "Bolsonarism" agendas. The PSD will face a significant decline, while União Brasil could gain up to eight seats. The resulting composition will define the capacity to approve reforms and the need for negotiation between different party blocs.

With information from Correio do Povo, O GLOBO.