El Niño: pause in warming does not mean loss of strength, data suggest

The El Niño, one of the most sought-after climate phenomena at the moment, has shown a temporary stabilization in recent weeks, prompting many to question whether the event is losing strength. However, recent data released by Meteored, based on NOAA updates, indicate that this pause in warming does not mean a weakening of the phenomenon, which is still considered of exceptional intensity.

El Niño in temporary stabilization

In recent weeks, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region remained at +1.8°C, the same value recorded in the previous two weeks. After a sequence of significant highs in tropical Pacific temperatures, this stabilization raised questions. The absolute anomaly, which takes into account the ocean’s background warming, fell slightly from +2.7°C to +2.6°C in the weekly comparison.

However, the observed stabilization does not mean that the phenomenon has lost strength. According to Meteored, short‑term fluctuations are common and do not necessarily represent a change in El Niño’s trend.

Why the pause in warming does not mean weakening

The weekly El Niño indices are influenced by smaller‑scale, shorter‑duration atmospheric and oceanic processes. For this reason, international climate centers primarily use monthly and quarterly averages to assess the intensity and evolution of the phenomenon. A variation of a few tenths of a degree in just one week, therefore, is not enough to characterize the event’s weakening or to determine its final magnitude. The behavior observed in recent weeks must be analyzed within a broader trend, considering the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric indicators.

The influence of the Madden‑Julian Oscillation (MJO)

One factor that may have contributed to the recent stabilization was the behavior of the Madden‑Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical variability pattern capable of temporarily influencing atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific. When active in phases 6 and 7, the MJO can favor warming in the Niño 3.4 region. During August, the oscillation briefly advanced to phase 6, but its amplitude remained moderate and for a relatively short period. This limited the occurrence of more persistent easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific, reducing the additional impetus that could accelerate warming. This weaker-than‑expected performance does not mean that El Niño lost strength, but rather that one of the mechanisms capable of intensifying warming did not manifest as predicted.

Outlook: El Niño still exceptional

Despite the recent pause, oceanic and atmospheric indicators remain compatible with a very strong El Niño, dubbed the “Super El Niño” by the media. Data released by Meteored show that climate models continue to predict exceptionally high anomalies during the spring and early summer in the Southern Hemisphere. Temperatures could reach about 3.5°C in anomaly during that period, keeping the phenomenon at levels considered exceptional. The stabilization observed in recent weeks requires caution in data interpretation, with long‑term trend being the main indicator to monitor.

With information from Agrolink.