New Nexus and BTG poll shows electoral landscape

The release of a new round of the survey conducted by Nexus and BTG is stirring the political landscape and bringing updated numbers on the presidential race. The survey was released this Monday.

Scenarios of the presidential race

The new round of the poll indicates a tight race among the main names in the first-round matchup. In one of the tested scenarios, there is a tie within the margin of error among the best-placed candidates. The figures show the current president with 41% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 37%, Ronaldo Caiado with 5%, Renan Santos with 3%, and Romeu Zema with 3%. The list continues with Augusto Cury at 2% and Samara at 1%, while Rui Costa Pimenta, Hertz Dias, Edmilson Costa, Wilson Grassi, and Clariana Barão registered 0%. Blank and null votes total 5%, and those who do not know or did not answer reach 3%.

Second scenario with inclusion of candidacy

The second scenario evaluated by the survey includes the name of Pablo Marçal, who registered his candidacy despite being ineligible. In this simulation, the lead over the second-place candidate exceeds the margin of error, maintaining the lead in the race. The percentages point to 40% for the first-place candidate, 34% for the second, 5% for Ronaldo Caiado, and 4% for Pablo Marçal. Renan Santos appears with 3%, Romeu Zema and Augusto Cury register 2% each, and Samara, Rui Costa Pimenta, and Clariana Barão score 1%. The remaining candidates registered 0%, with 4% of blank and null votes and 3% of voters who do not know or did not answer.

Methodology and official registration

To conduct the study, 2,006 telephone interviews were administered between August 21 and 23. The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points, up or down. The poll was duly registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the code BR-09028/2026.

With information from Valor Econômico, Poder360, CartaCapital.