Governor in Bahia: ACM Neto and Jerônimo in a Fierce Duel
The race for state governor intensifies as the election approaches
On the eve of the first round of the 2026 elections, voting intention polls in Bahia reveal a nearly balanced dispute between ACM Neto, former mayor of Salvador, and Jerônimo Rodrigues, the current governor. The difference between the candidates has narrowed in recent months, keeping the race at a tense point that could decide the continuity or change of government in the state.
ACM Neto and Jerônimo: Narrowing Numbers
The Paraná Pesquisas survey, released on October 3rd, shows ACM Neto with 46.4% of voting intentions in the stimulated scenario, while Jerônimo appears with 44.6%. The 2.7 percentage point margin of error makes the results a technical tie. Compared to August, when ACM led with 48.5% against Jerônimo's 40.1%, the difference narrowed from 8.4 points to just 1.8 percentage points.
Second Round Simulation Maintains Technical Tie
Even in a second-round scenario, the poll indicates a technical tie: ACM Neto with 47.9% and Jerônimo with 46.3%. The margin of error remains at 2.7 percentage points, which maintains uncertainty about who would advance. In August, the difference was 10.9 percentage points, highlighting the tightening of the race.
AtlasIntel Shows Slight Advantage for Jerônimo
In another poll, AtlasIntel/A Tarde, released on October 3rd, indicates Jerônimo with 51.5% of valid votes and ACM Neto with 47.4%, a difference of 4.1 percentage points. The two percentage point margin of error prevents confirming a first-round victory. In a second-round scenario, Jerônimo would have 52.1% of valid votes against Neto's 47.9%.
Impact on the Electoral Landscape and Grassroots Vote
The results reflect the dynamic of support in the two main voting regions: the coast and the interior of Bahia. Polls reveal that, although Jerônimo maintains a slight advantage in some blocs, the closeness of the numbers keeps the electorate attentive to their choice on election day.
What to Expect at the Ballot Box
With polls showing narrow margins and shifting trends, election day could be decisive for who will lead state policies. The dispute remains open, and the final outcome will depend on voter mobilization and the effectiveness of last-minute campaigns.
With information from Poder360, Terra, Gazeta do Povo.
Source: Poder360, Terra, Gazeta do Povo