Series B: Juventude leads, Criciúma drops after loss

In the 27th round of Serie B, Juventude beat Criciúma 2-0 away, isolating itself at the top of the table. The result raised the gaúcho team's direct promotion chance from 37.52% to 52.95% and pushed Criciúma down from second to fifth place, cutting its direct‑promotion probability from 43.65% to 19.74%.

How the win changed the promotion odds

The 15‑percentage‑point increase for Juventude reflects its consolidation as the main candidate for direct promotion, since the top two spots guarantee a rise to Serie A. The odds were calculated in partnership with economist Bruno Imaizumi, using 10,000 simulations per match and a Bivariate Poisson model to assess attack and defense.

Criciúma's performance and the drop in expectations

With the defeat, Criciúma saw its direct‑promotion chances plunge to 19.74%, but it still maintains a solid probability of reaching the playoffs, which involve the third‑to‑sixth placed teams. The side now needs to improve results to stay within the playoff slots.

Other direct‑promotion contenders

Novorizontino, after beating Botafogo‑SP 3-1, reached a 59.91% chance of direct promotion, keeping the second place. Fortaleza and Vila Nova also show good possibilities, with 28.96% and 26.96% respectively. In the playoff race, the Tigre leads with a 59.46% chance of finishing between third and sixth, followed by Vila Nova with 58.58%.

Relegation and the bottom‑zone situation

Ponte Preta has a 100% probability of dropping to Serie C. The Macaca, facing a severe financial crisis and a 21‑match winless streak, is heading for a second consecutive relegation. América‑MG and Londrina were the only Z‑4 teams to win in the round, but they still face high risk, with Ceará showing a 99.94% chance of falling.

Unusual moment: Marcos Paulo's goal

During the match, defender Marcos Paulo left the field to use the bathroom because of severe stomach discomfort, but returned to the pitch and scored the second goal of the victory. He said he almost got substituted by Titi, but managed to come back in time to contribute decisively.

Methodology of the projections

The probabilities are recalculated after each round based on recent results and updated team performances. The algorithm combines a Bivariate Poisson distribution to estimate goals with a Monte Carlo method, running a thousand virtual simulations for each remaining match, generating scenarios that reflect the reality of the table.

With information from ge, GZH.