SP Senate Candidates Remain Tied

On the eve of the October 4 election, polls released by Quaest and Datafolha show that four candidates are in a technical tie in the race for the Senate in São Paulo. Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) lead with around 22% of voting intentions in the valid votes calculations.

Technical tie in valid votes polls

In the Quaest poll, which considered only valid votes, Derrite and André do Prado have 25% and 23% respectively, while Marina and Tebet are at 22% each. The prompted poll, in which the candidates' names are presented to the respondents, shows the same distribution of voting intentions.

Total votes and undecided voters decrease on the eve

When total votes—including blank, null, and undecided votes—are taken into account, the gap between the candidates narrows. Derrite and André do Prado reach 20% each, Marina reaches 17%, and Tebet reaches 17%. The number of undecided voters fell to 6%, down from 15% in the previous survey. The polls' margin of error is two percentage points.

Party context of the race

Marina Silva and Simone Tebet are on Fernando Haddad's (PT) ticket and support the reelection of President Lula. André do Prado and Derrite are running on Tarcísio de Freitas's (Republicanos) ticket and support the election of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The race reflects the polarization between the state's two major political forces.

How voting for the Senate works in 2026

Each voter has two votes for senator. The first vote is recorded after typing the candidate's three-digit number and confirming. Next, the voter chooses a different second candidate. If the same number is typed twice, the second vote will be considered null. Voting takes place on electronic voting machines, and the results are released by the TSE.

Who are the other candidates on the official list

In addition to the main four, the official list contains: Guto Schiavetto (Missão), Maíra de Souza (UP), Marcio Alves (UP), Dra. Eliana Ferreira (PSTU), Geraldo Rufino (Podemos), Soninha Francine (Cidadania), William Teixeira (Agir), Petter Maahs (PCB), Weller Gonçalves (PSTU), and Ednelson Cesaretti (PCO). Ricardo Salles (Novo) announced his withdrawal on September 28, but remains on the electronic voting machine.

What to expect on election day

The vote count on October 4 will determine who takes the two Senate seats for São Paulo. So far, 78% of respondents state that their choice is definitive, while 22% could still change. The final result will depend on voter turnout and the distribution of blank and null votes.

With information from G1, Folha de S.Paulo, VEJA.