Cuban Disillusionment and the End of Optimism for Change

A wave of optimism about political and economic changes in Cuba, fueled by the capture of Venezuelan autocrat Nicolás Maduro and statements by then‑President Trump, swept many Cubans at the start of 2026. The belief that the Cuban dictatorship was running out of time generated hopes of an imminent democratic transition, which have now evaporated, leading many to seek the context of this transformation.

The initial optimism and current disillusionment

In early 2026, many Cubans, such as Eugenio, a kiosk owner in Havana, believed the Cuban dictatorship was on its last days. Maduro’s capture and Trump’s promise that Cuba would be next created exaggerated optimism among many. There was a belief that the solution to the disaster was only a matter of time, with bets on the day and month of change. However, the illusion lasted little. Zaida, a medical specialist, notes that in September the situation was still the same. Yoel, a university student, says that young people who previously didn’t care about politics got involved, but many realized by the end of June that it was just “empty talk.”

The frustration of Cubans and the decline of protests

Frustration and powerlessness are palpable among Cubans. Mery expresses distrust of Americans, stating that U.S. pragmatism and National Security concerns prevail. Carlos, a sociologist, admits he was also misled, but as months passed hope extinguished, and democratic change is now seen as a utopia. The streets of Havana and other municipalities saw people protest against blackouts and the mismanagement of basic services, demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation and shouting for freedom. Yet street protests have noticeably decreased. In August, the Cuban Conflict Observatory (OCC) recorded 34 demonstrations, compared with 72 in July and 107 in June. This drop is attributed to exhaustion and the dissipation of the “Trump effect.” Despite this, the repressive intensity against protesting Cubans has not lessened, and the number of political prisoners reported by Prisoners Defenders stands at 1,327.

Economic outlook and structural crisis

The fall of Castroism is not seen as imminent. Extreme poverty is rising alongside food prices. Regime forecasts indicate an increase in blackouts for September due to thermal‑plant maintenance and fuel shortages. An electric‑company specialist confirms that outages could last days in Havana and weeks in the provinces. The 176 measures approved to reactivate the economy and the upcoming approval of new regulations for the private sector and foreign investment are not expected to change the picture, according to some. Vice‑Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment Carlos Luis Jorge Méndez hinted that Cuban private companies will soon be able to manage imports and exports directly, and the requirement to hire Cuban workers through state agencies will be eliminated. He said, “this is serious, it’s a real process,” but few analysts believe it will succeed. Economist Gustavo points out that liberal reforms clash with the nature of the government, which, in his view, lacks credibility. Cuba’s crisis is structural, with an economic‑political model that has failed after 67 years of flawed experiments.

Debates on U.S. policy toward Cuba

The consulted voices note that the expectation of political change in Cuba after Maduro’s capture has slowly faded. Sebastián A. Arcos, director of the Cuban Studies Institute at FIU, says a Democratic House of Representatives would not be enough to derail Cuba policy, but a Democratic Senate would be different. Luis Zúñiga, former diplomat, believes a Democratic Congress “would question or interfere with the current sanctions policy.” Former Democratic congressman Joe García advocates a new economic outreach, supporting the Cuban private sector instead of strangling the civilian population. He argues that the Cuban regime’s stubbornness is the cause of the economic tragedy, but that the multiplication of sanctions has increased the people’s suffering. Democratic candidate Elliott Rodríguez states he does not support an invasion of Cuba, but would be willing to back a limited action to stop Raúl Castro, provided it is legal and includes civilian protection. Arcos explains that the U.S. seems to have discovered that the Castro regime is harder to handle than Venezuela, moving more cautiously. Zúñiga considers that deploying a powerful U.S. naval force and issuing an ultimatum to the Cuban regime could be a “decisive factor,” as could the judicial prosecution of Raúl Castro, who might negotiate to protect his assets and his family’s future.

With information from Diario Las Américas, DIARIO DE CUBA, Teleprensa.