Brasileirão Série A table: who has the toughest path
Analysis of fixture difficulty and relegation risks in the final stretch
In the final ten rounds, the Campeonato Brasileiro still features eight clubs in the relegation zone, and the fixture rankings have generated great interest among fans and analysts. The reason for the intense search for the table is the difference in difficulty of the upcoming matches, which could drastically change the fate of teams like Remo, Internacional, and Chapecoense.
Opponent difficulty index
ge used data from Gato Mestre to calculate the average percentage of points that each club's upcoming opponents have already won. This metric indicates the level of difficulty each team will face until the end of the competition.
- Remo – 46.8% of upcoming opponents' points
- Internacional – 46.8%
- Chapecoense – 46.3%
- Vasco – 46.0%
- Grêmio – 44.9%
- Mirassol – 44.6%
- Vitória – 41.7%
- Corinthians – 41.2%
Schedule for the final rounds
The scheduled fixtures for the final rounds include matches such as Chapecoense against São Paulo (round 30), Internacional against Palmeiras (30th), and Grêmio against Corinthians (31st). The schedule shows that the teams with the highest difficulty index still have matches against clubs that have already accumulated a large share of the available points.
Relegation risk according to mathematics
The Department of Mathematics at UFMG released the relegation probabilities. Chapecoense has a 99.2% risk, followed by Remo (94.2%) and Internacional (68.4%). Grêmio stands at 57.7% and Corinthians at 21.4%. Vasco, Mirassol, and Vitória have a risk above 12%.
Comparison between difficulty and risk
The clubs with the highest difficulty index – Remo, Internacional, Chapecoense, and Vasco – also appear among those at the highest risk of relegation. On the other hand, Vitória and Corinthians, which face opponents with a lower average point percentage, have a relegation risk of less than 13%.
What the table indicates for the final stretch
With the combination of a demanding schedule and high probabilities of relegation, the clubs in the relegation zone must seek positive results in their remaining fixtures. The difference between facing opponents with an average of 46% of points and those with an average below 42% could be decisive for staying in Série A.
With information from ge, UOL.
Source: ge, UOL