credit in brazil in 2027

credit will be the main driver of the brazilian economy in 2027, according to projections. after a 2026 marked by sustained growth, the next year tends to present a different scenario, with credit playing a fundamental role in the economy, especially in commerce.

the role of credit in the economy

credit directly influences the performance of sales, especially in a country where a significant portion of purchases are made in installments. however, the combination of high interest rates and increasing default rates threatens this mechanism of support, with banks tending to adopt more rigorous criteria for lending.

the risk of deceleration

the threat is that there will be a faster deceleration of the financing offer than the fall in interest rates, which would affect consumption, reduce companies' demand and weaken the pace of the economy. the projections for the next year already reflect part of this concern, with a significantly smaller expansion in 2027.

the role of monetary policy

on the other hand, there is a factor that can alleviate this scenario: the fall in interest rates. given a weaker economy and the prospect of lower pressure on demand, monetary policy may gain greater prominence in 2027, with gradual cuts in the selic rate potentially stimulating the resumption of credit concessions and alleviating the burden of installments for families and companies.

the performance of the credit market

according to goldman sachs, credit conditions will face headwinds in the coming months due to restrictive monetary policy, slowing growth, weaker labor market dynamics, increasing default rates, and very high levels of household debt. however, the granting of credit by public banks and lines sponsored by the federal government are expected to continue sustaining the cycle.

With information from Poder360, InfoMoney.